Finchy's predictions Welcome to my little b-log. Trying to provide you with helpful analysis, I also hope that you will benefit financially from my soccer picks. If you like to contact me, finchy@dir.bg or funds@mail.bg .
Saturday, February 03rd, 2007 09:00 Football - England
Pick: Chelsea to win Result: 0-1 Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.36 Bookmaker: EXPEKTvCash: No
Posted: Feb 03, 2007, 03:27
Charlton - Chelsea, you can without hesitation try the away win(1.35-1.40). Chelsea get back to winning terms, plus John Terry will very probably be back. Add to that Charlton miss key striker Marcus Bent, and you'd end up with the Chelsea to win alternative. It's true that one can notice an upsurge in Charlton, but Chelsea are undoubtedly the better side here.
I've already taken the combo Leicester + Chelsea, odds are exactly 2.50(expekt).
Saturday, February 03rd, 2007 09:00 Football - England
Pick: Leicester to win Result: 1-1 Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.85 Bookmaker: EXPEKTvCash: No
Posted: Feb 03, 2007, 03:25
I will be more brief here, as I've already written a preview of a Luton match, not so long ago.
If there was a bet at my bookie that Luton will be relegated, I would have taken it very high stakes, but for good or for bad, there isn't. So I'd have to be satisfied with the profit I gain from anti-Luton bets, which is a good strategy in the current Championship situation. I said it in my previous preview, I repeat it now - Rowan Vine was the milestone of Luton's performance, but he's gone to Birmingham now. Add to that, that they have several squad problems with injured players(they played away to Coventry in mid-week without 9 players), and you easily realize that today is not the hey-day of Luton. After three successive losses, against WBA, Barnsley and Coventry, now they face the sympathetic team of Leicester, away.
Leicester are in a bad streak, they have 3 losses and 1 draw in the last 4 matches. But notice that all these results are against top 10 teams - Sunderland, Southampton, Cardiff and they were the team to end Colchester's 11 games unbeaten at home streak(1-1). Now that they have brought in some loanees, Luigi Glombard, Mark Yeates and Geoff Horsfield, who all will be available against Luton, I believe that they are about to add a win to their record. They have no new injury concerns, excluding midfielder Danny Tiatto, who has been out for weeks.
Leicester to win, 1.85@Expekt
Tuesday, January 30th, 2007 13:45 Football - England
Pick: X2 Result: 1-2 Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.73 Bookmaker: SportingbetvCash: No
Posted: Jan 29, 2007, 13:50
An important clash between fellow Championship strugglers is about to take place on Tuesday's round in the Championship.
Hosts Hull have been improving lately, climbing up a few places in the table, and are now 19th, but only two points above the relegation zone. They have produced decent results in the past 4 games, with 3 wins(home against in-crisis Burnley 2-0, away to Sheffield W 2-1, at home against QPR 2-1) and 1 draw last round away to Crystal Palace 1-1. Such performance is satisfying for the team's likes, but I doubt it will last for long, as Hull are anything but consistent throughout the season. What's more, Hull miss 4 players, Nick Barmby (ankle), Steve McPhee (hamstring), former Leeds midfielder Dave Livermore (ineligible) and Sam Collins (knee), of which Livermore and Barmby are quite important and are taking part in the majority of Hull's past fixtures.
Relegation is knocking on Elland Road's gates, and if they eventually drop down to League One, it would be the 1st season on so low level in Leeds' 88 years history. And they are conscious of that, the team's pride is under question, so everything possible has been done to improve the situation in the January transfer window. Classy players like former Chelsea forward Tore Andre Flo and Celtic midfielder Alan Thompson have been brought in, and both of them scored in the last game at Elland Road, against in-form West Bromich(2-3 FT). Now rested(Leeds and Hull had no matches last week), and after a training camp at Cyprus last week, the manager claims that the team is in high spirits, and are clearly aware of the fact, that they have to win at least half of their remaining games, in order Leeds to survive in the relegation battle. The aim is clear, and I believe that Leeds' squad has the ability to achieve this, so I'm beginning a new system in favour of Leeds in the following Championship rounds. For Leeds, defender Hayden Fox is out on Tuesday, but as a compensation, titular midfielder Jonathan Douglas is back.
To sum up, I have confidence that Leeds are going to manage decent results from now on, and I suggest betting in favour of them. For this particular match, I suggest the X2 alternative, odds are around 1.72(sportingbet). +0.5 AH if available is also a good choice, and for the risky individuals, the odds for the 3way Leeds to win are above 3.00.
Tuesday, January 30th, 2007 13:45 Football - England
Pick: Liverpool to win
Result: 1-2 Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.65 Bookmaker: EXPEKTvCash: No
Posted: Jan 29, 2007, 13:48
After a smooth win against Chelsea, Liverpool now are looking forward to the second position in the Premiership, and their next obstacle is their visit to Upton Park.
Hosts West Ham are facing further problems under the guidance of their new manager Alan Curbishley. It would be too exaggerated to label their results 'disastrous', but to say the least, they are unsatisfying. Remember their 6-0 loss against Reading 2 weeks ago? And notice the last 6 games form, 3 draws and 3 wins. Plus, they lost at home against Watford 0-1 Saturday for the cup, and being beaten by poor Guests like Watford is nothing but positive. Lucas Neill and Carloz Tevez are doubtful Marlon Harewood and Calum Davenport ahead of Tuesday's match.
More to say about Liverpool. It's true I am a fan, nonetheless one cannot deny that their form is marvellous. I was delighted to watch how easily they approach the Chelsea side, and how they won without any significant problems. Add to their recent results, the fact that they have been resting for the past week(no cup games), and have no new injury concerns, and may even be boosted by the return of Sissoko and Zenden. I liked the way Benitez approaches this fixture, saying "You can't beat Chelsea and then lose to West Ham otherwise the position will be similar to what it was. ". And he is deadly right.
The conclusion is simple, I expect an away win against poor West Ham side, which, even more, are crippled by some players' injuries.
The price is 1.65@expekt.
Saturday, January 20th, 2007 09:00 Football - England
Pick: X2 Double Chance Result: 1-1 Stake: 5/10 Odds: 1.40 Bookmaker: SportingbetvCash: No
Posted: Jan 20, 2007, 02:21
Just briefly about this:
I saw Tottenham against Newcastle and they really deserved to win, but that's football(2-3), they missed a number of chances in front of goal. They have signed a couple of new players recently, and perhaps they will improve their disastrous away form - and a non-pretentious opponent like Fulham is convenient. As for the statistics, Fulham have only scored 9 goals at home. Since Tottenham's problems are defensive, this statistic is in their favour, and with that good attacking play, maybe they will score a goal or more themselves and eventually get the win.
Saturday, January 20th, 2007 09:00 Football - England
Pick: Preston to win Result: 3-2 Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.85 Bookmaker: SportingbetvCash: No
Posted: Jan 19, 2007, 08:45
This Championship fixture takes place on Saturday, 1500 GMT. Both teams in the upper part of the table, their bid for the play-off and eventually the direct promotion positions is to be seen.
The hosts Preston have occupied the leading positions for the whole season, and perhaps are about to do so for the rest of it. Though there have been some unexpected slip-ups, they are more than tough at home(9-4-1) and are third in the home table(behind WBA and Colchester). Their main problem before the January transfer window, as manager Paul Simpson claims, is that they create goal opportunities but fail to convert them into goals. For that reason, Simpson signed striker Michael Ricketts, who, after а good game against Barnsley last week, is believed to make a positive impact on Preston’s attacking performance. Ricketts himself said in an interview that his love in football has reincarnated, and I expect him motivated and willing to play on Saturday. The regular winger Danny Pugh is also available after a suspension, and that would surely be in favour of the team.
Stoke used the transfer window to strengthen their defence line. They signed two top flight players, Blackburn defender Dominic Matteo and Portsmouth full-back Andy Griffin. They were down in the middle of the table until November, when they achieved remarkable results and were even in the direct promotion zone. Though, I don't consider them that strong side, and this has proved true lately, as they are now down to the 7th(one game less), and I expect that their fight for play-off places will be more than fierce. As they miss their top goalscorer Ricardo Fuller(suspension), I hardly believe that they would cause much trouble to Preston's defensive line(generally Stoke are among the lowest-scoring teams in the top part of the table, and Preston's defensive performance at home is the best one, with only 8 goals conceded).
For me, Preston have the better chances here. Their boosted attack could outplay Stoke's strong defence and score one or two(moreover, Stoke's new defenders the new signings have to get used to their new club), and guests would hardly cause any trouble to Preston's goalie. So my choice is Home win(1.85@sportingbet) medium stakes, or Preston Draw No bet(1.36@sportingbet) for higher stakes. Under 2.5 is also an alternative, and you may even try Ricketts to score.
This game was scheduled in December, but it was postponed and it takes place today. I used to write a preview for the game in my b-log, when it was firstly meant to be played, and I chose the home win, and I'd opt for it once more.
Crewe are definitely not in their best form, as we see only one win and three draws in their last 8 matches. The thing to be noticed here, is that their win is at home against Bournemouth, and 2 of their draws away to Cheltenham and Leyton Orient. All these teams are bottom placed and regarded as outsiders in the league. Actually, throughout the whole season, Crewe haven't produced good results against teams, who are in the upper part of the table. Apart from that, they are a team that concedes many goals. They have an important player missing, midfielder Tony Grant.
On the opposite side we have Tranmere, who as you perhaps know, rely mainly on their home fixtures. They have dropped down the rankings recently, and I believe that they should come back to winning terms soon, at least at home. Pity for them that they MAY miss their leading goalscorer tonight, Chris Greenacre, who is has flu(but maybe he could take part in the game as a sibstitute), but regulars John Mullin(Midfielder) and Robbie Stockdale(defender) are back in contention after serving one-match bans.
Tranmere are strong at home, and for me, they should be able to win this one(1.80@Sportingbet).
Draw No bet at 1.33 is also worth trying with higher stakes.
P.S. I just forgot to add the analysis here(as you can see in the link upwards, I've written it before kick-off of course). I'm not cheating, I'd just like to add the amount won here as well, as I want to improve my ROI.
Monday, January 15th, 2007 13:45 Football - England
Pick: X2 Double Chance Result: 2-0 Stake: 3/10 Odds: 2.60 Bookmaker: SportingbetvCash: No
Posted: Jan 15, 2007, 12:46
I'd like to do some other kind of analysis, regardless of form and quality of the teams. I don't wanna post it separately for obvious reasons.
So firstly, it's monday - few fixtures => too much attention on the home win. Plus, it's league 2 and Walsall have some advantage in front of the runners-up(I mean, they can afford to omit some points).
I have reasons to think that bookies expect X2. Local bookie offers 1.45 for the home win, and on the 26th of December, for example, odd for Walsall in the game Walsall - Shrewsbury was 1.53. Just compare Grimsby and Shrewsbury in terms of stats(plus, Grimsby are on a very bad run recently) and you would agree that the odd for today's fixture should be a bit lower.
I've taken both the draw, and X2 lower stakes, and if Walsall get the lead I would try the X2 live(odds will be 5+). Same were my tactics with the Birmingham - Luton fixture last Friday(2-2 ft) and it proved quite profitable
Saturday, January 13th, 2007 09:00 Football - Other
Pick: Barnet, Draw No Bet Result: 1-0 Stake: 10/10 Odds: 1.67 Bookmaker: SportingbetvCash: No
Posted: Jan 13, 2007, 03:23
A Coca-Cola League 2 fixture, scheduled Saturday 1500 GMT. We have two prosperous teams in contention, both in good form.
Barnet have lost their last match away to Boston(1-2) and prior to this fixture, they had 4 successive wins(although none was against a top-five team). Barnet have one of their titular defenders(Anthony Charles) back. An important factor, that would surely affect such a small team’s performance, is their win against high-flying Championship side Colchester for the FA cup(2-1). This is considered a remarkable success for Barnet’s likes, as they have never before advanced that much in the FA Cup. They should appear more motivated, with their self-confidence boost up, and with desire for further impressive results. Generally, they are a good team, and are regarded by specialists as contenders for play-off places, despite their current 13th position(though, they are only 4 points down from the play-off zone).
The legend Paul Ince has achieved remarkable results with Macclesfield, since he had been employed as a manager in October(if my memory doesn’t lie me). Since then, Macclesfield’s hopes for staying in League 2 have reincarnated. They deserve respect with their 8 games unbeaten League streak, pity for them that they had to face Chelsea at Stamford Bridge for the FA cup(6-1 for the Blues), which surely had a bad impact on the players. Apart from that, they miss their regular, Tommy Lee.
After all, Macclesfield’s streak will come to an end at some time, and perhaps the Barnet side, with boosted self-confidence, won’t welcome them to the Underhill Stadium with arms wide open. I expect that Barnet dominate the match, and eventually win, though I do not exclude the draw outcome. So, I would choose the Barnet Draw No Bet alternative, with odds of 1.66(Sportingbet). Barnet, -0.25 AH is also a variant, or the braver ones may try the straight home win(2.25@Sportingbet).
Saturday, January 13th, 2007 09:00 Football - Other
Pick: Birmingham, AH -1 Result: POSTPONED Stake: 7/10 Odds: 1.89 Bookmaker: 10betvCash: No
Posted: Jan 12, 2007, 03:21
I focus my attention on this fixture, taking place on Saturday, Championship Round 28. Birmingham, favorites for promotion in this campaign, face struggling Leeds United side, who obviously are going to battle for survival in the Championship for the rest of the season.
After two slip-ups against Luton Town(home, 2-2) and Ipswich(away, 0-1), Birmingham are perhaps about to get back into winning terms. I don’t pay much attention to the draw against Luton, as I am confident, that something was done under the table(fixture was on Friday and large sums were placed on the home win), as Birmingham are in need of cash. But now that their 8 point lead is down to 3, they are obliged to win this one. Club owner has invested too much in the team,(and their bank account overdraft is around 5 mln pounds by now) and he surely wants promotion in order to compensate for the expenses. Birmingham have just signed Luton’s top goalscorer Rowan Vine(2,5 mln), whose initial task is to make up for the injured Nicklas Bendtner and Cameron Jerome. It is clear sign of Birmingham’s ambition to participate in the top flight at any cost. Birmingham’s last game(FA cup) against Newcastle was impressive, and 10-man hosts managed to secure the draw after 1-2 until the 86th minute in favour of the Premiership side.
On the opposite side we have Leeds United, who are in a desperate need for points. They have signed Norwegian forward Tore Andre Flo, but sold defender Matthew Kilgallon(1.75 mln, to Sheffield). They are now quite close to signing Celtic midfielder Alan Thompson, and in case of finishing this deal, I believe they will climb up the rankings, but this wouldn’t happen before the Saturday fixture against Birmingham.
So, as a conclusion, I expect the home side to win comfortably. The price for the home win is 1.45-1.50, and for the braver ones I suggest the Birmingham -1 AH alternative, odd is 1.89(10bet).
Tuesday, January 02nd, 2007 14:00 Football - England
Pick: Over 2.5 goals Result: 0-0 Stake: 5/10 Odds: 1.91 Bookmaker: SportingbetvCash: No
Posted: Jan 02, 2007, 02:46
With Barry suspended, Villa will be even more prone to defensive mistakes, and with the likes of Drogba and co., this quite often means GOALS. I believe that Chelsea would definitely score 2 or more.
We all know about Chelsea defensive problems recently, with Terry and Peter Cezh injured. Perhaps Chelsea would let one in, too.
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